Reims 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reims at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune II. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Reims) versus 1.60 (Stade Brestois 29). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Reims have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 46% versus Stade Brestois 29 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 38% | Stade Brestois 29 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.38 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.974 / defence 1.001 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.807 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.143. Data: 24 Reims games / 24 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 48% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 25%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Stade Brestois 29 4.00. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reims 30% | Stade Brestois 29 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 48% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Reims 1.38 / Stade Brestois 29 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.974 / def 1.001 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.807 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Reims (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Stade Brestois 29 xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reims 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 48% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Reims and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 1 | Stade Brestois 29 0W.
What form are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.97x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.65
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Reims xG
Total xG
2.30
0.92
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
6%
15.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Reims and 0.92 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Reims have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 6W 9D 9L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29's form line: 8W 7D 9L from 24 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.12 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L).
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 3W 3D 5L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.38 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Reims's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.36 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Reims or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Stade Brestois 29 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
6
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 36%, Stade Brestois 29 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Reims) and 54% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Reims's games and 82% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Reims's recent games and 54% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.38 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.92 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 48% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 25%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 38%, Stade Brestois 29 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.12 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.