Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Stade Brestois 29.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain host Stade Brestois 29 at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Paris Saint Germain have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris Saint Germain at Parc des Princes this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parc des Princes this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stade Brestois 29's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Paris Saint Germain have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Paris Saint Germain have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Stade Brestois 29 have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Paris Saint Germain and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 65% versus Stade Brestois 29 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 68% | Stade Brestois 29 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.32 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.503 / defence 0.912 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.999 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.390. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.503 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Paris Saint Germain games / 37 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 61% | Draw 20% | Stade Brestois 29 19%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Stade Brestois 29 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 90% | Stade Brestois 29 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 61% | Draw 20% | Stade Brestois 29 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.32 / Stade Brestois 29 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.503 / def 0.912 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.999 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Stade Brestois 29 xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29?
Paris Saint Germain 3 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 61% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (6 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 5W | Draws 1 | Stade Brestois 29 0W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Paris Saint Germain's attack at 1.50x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
61%
1.65
20%
4.99
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.59
1.27
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
10%
10.18
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
2%
52.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.27 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 25W 10D 2L from 37 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 9L across 37 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 10W 6D 2L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 9W 3D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.57 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Stade Brestois 29 in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 25W 10D 2L in their last 37 games (2.30 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.00 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Paris Saint Germain won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 9, Stade Brestois 29 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 72%, Stade Brestois 29 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Paris Saint Germain and 44% for Stade Brestois 29. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 in 33%; Stade Brestois 29 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 39% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 44% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stade Brestois 29.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Stade Brestois 29 3-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.32 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.27 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.50 / defence 0.91 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 61% | Draw 20% | Stade Brestois 29 19%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 68%, Stade Brestois 29 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.73. Form held, and they took the win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.