Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Princes plays host to Paris Saint Germain versus Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Paris Saint Germain have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris Saint Germain at Parc des Princes this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Princes.
Le Havre (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Paris Saint Germain have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Le Havre managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Paris Saint Germain and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 44% versus Le Havre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 64% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.60 xG and Le Havre 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.164 / defence 0.982 | Le Havre attack 0.896 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Data: 36 Paris Saint Germain games / 36 Le Havre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 45% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 26%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Le Havre 3.85. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 50% | Le Havre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 45% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.60 / Le Havre 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.164 / def 0.982 | Le Havre attack 0.896 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Le Havre xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Parc des Princes.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 45% chance of winning, Le Havre a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Record (6 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 5W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.16) and Le Havre's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.90x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.45
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.77
1.18
Le Havre xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
5%
19.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.18 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 24W 6D 6L from 36 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 7W 15D 14L across 36 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 13W 3D 2L from 18 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 2W 7D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.92 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 games (2.17 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Le Havre away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.33 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Le Havre in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-4 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Le Havre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Le Havre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 39%, Le Havre 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Paris Saint Germain) and 22% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Le Havre in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 44% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 72% of Paris Saint Germain's recent games and 22% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.