Nice 4-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nice host Saint Etienne at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nice have posted 6W 1D 3L at Allianz Riviera — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Saint Etienne have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Nice carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nice, 0 for Saint Etienne and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 3–0 with Nice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 34% versus Saint Etienne 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 46% | Saint Etienne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.41 xG and Saint Etienne 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.804 / defence 0.895 | Saint Etienne attack 0.725 / defence 1.458. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.247. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.458 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Nice games / 35 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 51% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 21%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 4.76. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 40% | Saint Etienne 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 51% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Nice 1.41 / Saint Etienne 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.804 / def 0.895 | Saint Etienne attack 0.725 / def 1.458 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Nice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Saint Etienne xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Nice vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Nice 4 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Nice vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Saint Etienne part of?
Nice vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 51% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Nice and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Nice and Saint Etienne in?
Nice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.67
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Nice xG
Total xG
2.22
0.81
Saint Etienne xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
5%
19.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nice and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Nice and 0.81 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice's recent record stands at 18W 7D 10L from 35 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 18L across 35 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nice have managed 9W 4D 4L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 3W 4D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.09 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 66%.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 games (1.74 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 7W 10D 18L in their last 35 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Saint Etienne away?
Nice's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.82 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Nice or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Nice won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Nice
1
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 5, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Nice 4-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Saint Etienne?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 47%, Saint Etienne 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Nice) and 47% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 29% of games; Saint Etienne in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Nice's recent matches and 53% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Nice's recent games and 47% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Saint Etienne 4-2 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.41 xG and Saint Etienne 0.81 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Nice beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against Saint Etienne attack 0.72 / defence 1.46, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 51% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 21%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 46%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Nice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.