Nice 4-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nice host Saint Etienne at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nice have posted 0W 7D 3L at Allianz Riviera — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Saint Etienne have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Nice) versus 0.90 (Saint Etienne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Nice: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Saint Etienne, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Nice and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 56% versus Saint Etienne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 50% | Saint Etienne 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.05 xG and Saint Etienne 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.721 / defence 1.103 | Saint Etienne attack 0.997 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.328. Nice's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 Nice games / 34 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 26% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 45%. Fair-value odds: Nice 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Saint Etienne 2.22. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 50% | Saint Etienne 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Final | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 26% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Nice 1.05 / Saint Etienne 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.721 / def 1.103 | Saint Etienne attack 0.997 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Saint Etienne xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Nice vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 May 2026 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Nice 4 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Nice vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Saint Etienne part of?
Nice vs Saint Etienne is a Final fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 26% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nice and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Saint Etienne?
Record (5 meetings): Nice 4W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Nice and Saint Etienne in?
Nice (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
26%
3.90
29%
3.39
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Nice xG
Total xG
2.51
1.46
Saint Etienne xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
6%
16.80
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nice and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Nice and 1.46 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice's recent record stands at 8W 12D 16L from 36 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 20L across 36 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.00 PPG, Saint Etienne on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nice have managed 4W 8D 5L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 2W 3D 12L across 17 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.08 scored and 2.14 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 8W 12D 16L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 8W 8D 20L in their last 36 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Saint Etienne away?
Nice's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.18 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Nice won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Nice
1
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 5, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Nice 4-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Saint Etienne?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 53%, Saint Etienne 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nice) and 59% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 35% of games; Saint Etienne in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Nice's recent matches and 53% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nice's recent games and 59% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nice run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Saint Etienne 4-1 at Allianz Riviera, Final, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.05 xG and Saint Etienne 1.46 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Nice beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.72 / defence 1.10 against Saint Etienne attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 68/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 26% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 45%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 50%, Saint Etienne 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.00 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.