Nice 0-1 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Riviera plays host to Nice versus Montpellier in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nice's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 0L across 6 games at Allianz Riviera this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Montpellier (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's away record: 0W 2D 3L from 5 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Nice's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nice have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Montpellier in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Montpellier half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 42% versus Montpellier 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 58% | Montpellier 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 2.10 xG and Montpellier 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.172 / defence 1.163 | Montpellier attack 0.832 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.187. Montpellier bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Nice games / 12 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 56% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 17%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Montpellier 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Nice (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 67% | Montpellier 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 56% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Nice 2.10 / Montpellier 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.172 / def 1.163 | Montpellier attack 0.832 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Nice (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Montpellier xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Montpellier kick off?
Nice vs Montpellier kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Montpellier?
Nice 0 - 1 Montpellier.
Where is Nice vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Montpellier part of?
Nice vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 56% chance of winning, Montpellier a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Nice and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Montpellier?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nice and Montpellier in?
Nice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Montpellier (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nice's attack at 1.17x the league average against Montpellier's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.83x) against Nice's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
56%
1.77
26%
3.81
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Nice xG
Total xG
3.25
1.15
Montpellier xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
12%
8.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
2%
47.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Nice and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Nice and 1.15 for Montpellier, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Montpellier?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Nice have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 7W 3D 2L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier's form line: 4W 4D 4L from 12 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nice are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Montpellier.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nice have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
On the road, Montpellier have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Montpellier's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nice are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.67 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Montpellier in 67%.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Montpellier away?
Nice's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 2.20 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Nice or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Montpellier in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nice won 6-1 on 11 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Montpellier — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Nice
3
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Montpellier?
From 8 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Montpellier have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Nice 2-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Montpellier?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Nice, 80% for Montpellier — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Nice and 60% for Montpellier. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Montpellier?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Nice's games and 80% of Montpellier's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Nice's matches and 60% of Montpellier's.
Do Nice and Montpellier tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Montpellier defy the odds to beat Nice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Nice 0-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 2.10 xG and Montpellier 1.15 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nice fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Montpellier attack 0.83 / defence 1.41, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 56% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 17%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Montpellier win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 58%, Montpellier 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Montpellier's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Montpellier winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.