Nice 0-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Monaco at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Nice welcome Monaco to Allianz Riviera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Nice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice's home record at Allianz Riviera: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Monaco have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nice at 1.70 PPG versus Monaco's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nice, 1 for Monaco and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 42% versus Monaco 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 49% | Monaco 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.07 xG and Monaco 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.861 / defence 1.077 | Monaco attack 1.065 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.556. Data: 43 Nice games / 43 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 21% | Draw 27% | Monaco 52%. Fair-value odds: Nice 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Monaco 1.92. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nice 50% | Monaco 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 21% | Draw 27% | Monaco 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Nice 1.07 / Monaco 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.861 / def 1.077 | Monaco attack 1.065 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.556 • Poisson stance: Monaco (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Monaco xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Monaco kick off?
Nice vs Monaco kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Monaco?
Nice 0 - 1 Monaco.
Where is Nice vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Monaco part of?
Nice vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 21% chance of winning, Monaco a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nice and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Monaco?
Record (2 meetings): Nice 0W | Draws 1 | Monaco 1W.
What form are Nice and Monaco in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Monaco (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nice's attack at 0.86x the league average against Monaco's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
21%
4.81
27%
3.74
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Nice xG
Total xG
2.85
1.78
Monaco xG
4.81
21%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
17%
5.96
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
3%
28.69
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Nice and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Nice and 1.78 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Nice have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 21W 9D 13L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monaco's form line: 21W 11D 11L from 43 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.67 PPG, Monaco on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 9W 6D 6L from 21 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.67 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Early Season
Monaco
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Monaco in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 21W 9D 13L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Monaco have gone 21W 11D 11L in their last 43 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Monaco away?
Nice's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.67 PPG; Monaco away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Nice or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Monaco in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Nice won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
3
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Monaco have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Nice 0-0 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 52%, Monaco 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Nice) and 52% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 29% of games; Monaco in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Nice's games and 62% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Nice's recent games and 52% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Monaco tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Monaco in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Nice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Nice 0-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.07 xG and Monaco 1.78 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against Monaco attack 1.06 / defence 0.82, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 21% | Draw 27% | Monaco 52%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 49%, Monaco 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monaco's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.67 PPG, Monaco 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.