Nice 1-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nice at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Angers travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nice — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Allianz Riviera this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Angers have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Nice are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Angers in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nice, 0 for Angers and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Nice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nice in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Angers in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 38% versus Angers 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 54% | Angers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.48 xG and Angers 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.823 / defence 1.231 | Angers attack 0.940 / defence 1.505. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.155. Angers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.505 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Nice games / 24 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 40% | Draw 26% | Angers 34%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Angers 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nice 60% | Angers 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 40% | Draw 26% | Angers 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Nice 1.48 / Angers 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.823 / def 1.231 | Angers attack 0.940 / def 1.505 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Nice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Angers xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Angers kick off?
Nice vs Angers kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Angers?
Nice 1 - 0 Angers.
Where is Nice vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Angers part of?
Nice vs Angers is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 40% chance of winning, Angers a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nice and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Angers?
Record (1 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 0 | Angers 0W.
What form are Nice and Angers in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Angers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nice's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.88
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Nice xG
Total xG
2.81
1.33
Angers xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Nice and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nice and 1.33 for Angers, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nice come into this having played 24 games, going 13W 4D 7L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nice's home form reads 5W 3D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (2W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nice are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.25 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Angers in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Angers in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 13W 4D 7L in their last 24 games (1.79 PPG), while Angers have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Angers away?
Nice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.50 PPG; Angers away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Nice or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Angers in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nice and Angers runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Angers specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Nice
1
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Angers?
From 8 meetings on record, Nice have won 5, Angers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Angers 0-2 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Angers?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nice at 50%, Angers at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Nice) and 50% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nice's games and 83% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Nice's recent games and 50% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Angers tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Angers in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Angers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Angers 1-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.48 xG and Angers 1.33 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Angers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.82 / defence 1.23 against Angers attack 0.94 / defence 1.50, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 40% | Draw 26% | Angers 34%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 54%, Angers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Angers's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.