Nantes 3-1 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris Saint Germain at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nantes and Paris Saint Germain meet at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantes have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nantes, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nantes — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 50% versus Paris Saint Germain 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 38% | Paris Saint Germain 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.27 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.047 / defence 1.102 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.265 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.160. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Nantes games / 24 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 30% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 45%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Paris Saint Germain 2.22. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 50% | Paris Saint Germain 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 30% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Nantes 1.27 / Paris Saint Germain 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.047 / def 1.102 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.265 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Paris Saint Germain xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Nantes 3 - 1 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 30% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nantes and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (1 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 0 | Paris Saint Germain 1W.
What form are Nantes and Paris Saint Germain in?
Nantes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nantes's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.26x) against Nantes's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
30%
3.35
25%
4.00
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.89
1.62
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.35
30%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Nantes and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Nantes and 1.62 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Nantes have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 10W 5D 9L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 18W 5D 1L from 24 games, 2.46 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantes.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nantes have posted 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 7W 4D 1L from 12 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Nantes are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.17 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 10W 5D 9L in their last 24 games (1.46 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 18W 5D 1L in their last 24 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.92 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Nantes or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 0-3 on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nantes
2
Draws
7
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 1, Paris Saint Germain have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 42%, Paris Saint Germain 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Nantes) and 50% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Nantes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nantes have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Nantes's games and 75% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Nantes's recent games and 50% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Paris Saint Germain.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Paris Saint Germain 3-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.27 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.62 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.26 / defence 1.03, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 30% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 45%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nantes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 38%, Paris Saint Germain 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.46. Form was overturned, with Nantes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.