Nantes 0-0 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monaco make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to face Nantes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 January 2022 at 16:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nantes have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 3L across 9 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
Monaco's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 3W 2D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.22 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Nantes, 1.50 for Monaco — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nantes lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 53% versus Monaco 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 37% | Monaco 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.47 xG and Monaco 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.085 / defence 1.156 | Monaco attack 0.792 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.273. Monaco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Nantes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Nantes games / 19 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 43% | Draw 28% | Monaco 29%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Monaco 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nantes 44% | Monaco 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 43% | Draw 28% | Monaco 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Nantes 1.47 / Monaco 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.085 / def 1.156 | Monaco attack 0.792 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Nantes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Monaco xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Monaco kick off?
Nantes vs Monaco kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Monaco?
Nantes 0 - 0 Monaco.
Where is Nantes vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Monaco part of?
Nantes vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 43% chance of winning, Monaco a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nantes and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Monaco?
Record (1 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 1 | Monaco 0W.
What form are Nantes and Monaco in?
Nantes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nantes's attack rating (1.08) and Monaco's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.79x) against Nantes's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.54
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.64
1.17
Monaco xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Nantes and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Nantes and 1.17 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes's recent record stands at 8W 4D 7L from 19 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 6L across 19 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Nantes against 1.53 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 5W 1D 3L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monaco's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.53 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Monaco in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Monaco have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Monaco away?
Nantes's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.78 PPG; Monaco away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Monaco have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 7-1 on 15 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nantes
5
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 0, Monaco have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Monaco 3-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 44%, Monaco 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nantes) and 44% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 33% of games; Monaco in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nantes's recent matches and 44% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nantes's recent games and 44% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Monaco tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Monaco in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nantes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 20, as Nantes and Monaco drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.47 xG and Monaco 1.17 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Monaco landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Monaco attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 43% | Draw 28% | Monaco 29%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 37%, Monaco 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monaco's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.47 PPG, Monaco 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.