Nantes 0-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nantes at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantes host Lyon at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 1W 1D 1L from 3 Ligue 1 matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lyon — All Games: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Nantes have the edge — a 0.66 PPG advantage (1.33 vs 0.67) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lyon trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 33% versus Lyon 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantes 0% | Lyon 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.62 xG and Lyon 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.057 / defence 0.973 | Lyon attack 0.673 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.526. Lyon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Nantes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Nantes games / 3 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 48% | Draw 32% | Lyon 20%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Lyon 5.00. Nantes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Nantes 33% | Lyon 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 48% | Draw 32% | Lyon 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Nantes 1.62 / Lyon 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.057 / def 0.973 | Lyon attack 0.673 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: Nantes (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lyon xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Lyon kick off?
Nantes vs Lyon kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Nantes 0 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Nantes vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Lyon part of?
Nantes vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 48% chance of winning, Lyon a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nantes and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lyon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantes and Lyon in?
Nantes (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-L. Lyon (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
48%
2.07
32%
3.14
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.62
1.00
Lyon xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
4%
25.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Nantes and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Nantes and 1.00 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nantes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Lyon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Early Season
Lyon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Lyon in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Lyon have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Nantes or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lyon in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Lyon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Lyon won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantes's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nantes
3
Draws
7
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lyon?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 0, Lyon have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Nantes 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 33%, Lyon 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Nantes and 67% for Lyon.
On the defensive side: Nantes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nantes have failed to score in 33% of games; Lyon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nantes's recent matches and 67% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Nantes's recent games and 67% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Lyon tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lyon in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lyon defy the odds to beat Nantes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Nantes 0-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.62 xG and Lyon 1.00 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantes fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Lyon attack 0.67 / defence 1.36, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 48% | Draw 32% | Lyon 20%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Lyon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 0%, Lyon 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nantes arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Lyon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nantes managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Lyon conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.