Montpellier 1-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Montpellier at 57%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Montpellier vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Mosson plays host to Montpellier versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Montpellier (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Montpellier have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Montpellier's home record at Stade de la Mosson: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Auxerre have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Auxerre are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 50% versus Auxerre 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 50% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 2.26 xG and Auxerre 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.019 / defence 1.111 | Auxerre attack 0.833 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.427. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing Montpellier's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Montpellier games / 2 Auxerre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Montpellier 57% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 20%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Auxerre 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Montpellier (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Montpellier are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 50% | Auxerre 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 57% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Montpellier 2.26 / Auxerre 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.019 / def 1.111 | Auxerre attack 0.833 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Auxerre xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Auxerre kick off?
Montpellier vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Auxerre?
Montpellier 1 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Montpellier vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Auxerre part of?
Montpellier vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 57% chance of winning, Auxerre a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Montpellier and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Montpellier and Auxerre in?
Montpellier (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 1.02x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.83x) against Montpellier's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.37
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Montpellier xG
Total xG
3.58
1.32
Auxerre xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
10%
9.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
2%
47.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.32 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Montpellier's recent record stands at 13W 7D 20L from 40 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Montpellier, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 7L across 40 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Montpellier heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Montpellier have managed 8W 5D 7L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 9W 8D 3L across 20 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Montpellier are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.52 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 13W 7D 20L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 19W 14D 7L in their last 40 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.45 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Auxerre in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Montpellier have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Montpellier
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 2, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Auxerre 1-0 Montpellier.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 50%, Auxerre 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Montpellier) and 45% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Montpellier have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Montpellier's games and 65% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Montpellier's recent games and 45% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Auxerre tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Montpellier 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Montpellier 1-2 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 2.26 xG and Auxerre 1.32 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Montpellier fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Auxerre attack 0.83 / defence 1.42, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 57% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 20%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 50%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.