Monaco 1-0 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Monaco face Rennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Monaco welcome Rennes to Stade Louis-II in Ligue 1 (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:05 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Monaco have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Monaco have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rennes — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Rennes have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Monaco) versus 2.00 (Rennes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Monaco have won 3, Rennes 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Monaco 2–1 Rennes — a Monaco win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Monaco in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Rennes in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Monaco 63% and Rennes 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 65% | Rennes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.24 xG and Rennes 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.975 / defence 0.960 | Rennes attack 0.915 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.297. Data: built from Monaco's last 65 games and Rennes's last 65.
Result probabilities: Monaco 37% | Draw 31% | Rennes 32%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.71 | Draw 3.21 | Rennes 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Monaco 60% (last 10 home games) | Rennes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 37% | Draw 31% | Rennes 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Monaco 1.24 / Rennes 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.975 / def 0.960 | Rennes attack 0.915 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Monaco (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Rennes xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monaco vs Rennes FAQs
What time does Monaco vs Rennes kick off?
Monaco vs Rennes kicked off at 17:05 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Rennes?
Monaco 1 - 0 Rennes.
Where is Monaco vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Rennes part of?
Monaco vs Rennes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 28) (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 37% chance of winning, Rennes a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Monaco and Rennes will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Monaco vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Monaco's attack at 0.97x the league average against Rennes's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Monaco's last 65 games and Rennes's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
37%
2.71
31%
3.21
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.38
1.14
Rennes xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monaco vs Rennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Monaco and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Monaco and 1.14 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 33W 15D 17L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Rennes's form line: 31W 14D 20L from 65 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 1.75 PPG, Rennes on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 32 home games (15W 6D 11L).
On the road, Rennes have gone 9W 11D 12L from their last 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Monaco are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.68 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Rennes
Blended
Monaco (Home) vs Rennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monaco
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Monaco vs Rennes Form FAQs
What form are Monaco and Rennes in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 33W 15D 17L in their last 65 games (1.75 PPG), while Rennes have gone 31W 14D 20L in their last 65 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Rennes away?
Monaco's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.59 PPG; Rennes away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Jan 2026, when Monaco won Monaco 4-0 Rennes.
Monaco's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Monaco
1
Draws
2
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Monaco vs Rennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Rennes?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Monaco have won 7, Rennes have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Monaco and Rennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Monaco 4-0 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Rennes?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 59%, Rennes 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Monaco) and 47% (Rennes).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monaco vs Rennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monaco and Rennes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Monaco's games and 62% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Monaco and Rennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Monaco's recent games and 47% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Rennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Monaco's recent matches and 69% of Rennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Rennes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Rennes 1-0 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.24 xG and Rennes 1.14 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rennes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Rennes attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 37% | Draw 31% | Rennes 32%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 65%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Rennes's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.75 PPG, Rennes 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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