Monaco 0-0 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Louis-II plays host to Monaco versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Monaco have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Louis-II, Monaco have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Paris Saint Germain arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Monaco, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 2–5 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Paris Saint Germain half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Monaco 64% and Paris Saint Germain 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Monaco 66% | Paris Saint Germain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 0.87 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.951 / defence 1.108 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.386 / defence 0.666. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.136. Paris Saint Germain's defence strength of 0.666 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Monaco games / 61 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 16% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 56%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 6.25 | Draw 3.57 | Paris Saint Germain 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 50% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 16% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Monaco 0.87 / Paris Saint Germain 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.951 / def 1.108 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.386 / def 0.666 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Paris Saint Germain xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Monaco 0 - 0 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 16% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 56% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Monaco and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (5 meetings): Monaco 2W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 2W.
What form are Monaco and Paris Saint Germain in?
Monaco (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monaco's attack at 0.95x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.39x) against Monaco's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
16%
6.11
28%
3.63
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.61
1.75
Paris Saint Germain xG
6.11
16%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
3%
35.03
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Monaco and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Monaco and 1.75 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 31W 13D 17L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 43W 10D 8L from 61 games, 2.28 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monaco.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (15W 4D 11L).
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 22W 5D 3L from 30 away games — 2.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monaco are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.34 scored and 0.97 conceded. Monaco's scoring rate against Paris Saint Germain's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 31W 13D 17L in their last 61 games (1.74 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 43W 10D 8L in their last 61 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.63 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.37 PPG.
Have Monaco or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Monaco go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 3-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Monaco
2
Draws
4
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 4, Paris Saint Germain have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 60%, Paris Saint Germain 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Monaco and 63% for Paris Saint Germain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Monaco's games and 53% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Monaco's matches and 63% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Monaco and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Monaco's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 24, as Monaco and Paris Saint Germain drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 0.87 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.75 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Monaco fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.39 / defence 0.67, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 16% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 56%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 66%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.