Monaco 0-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monaco vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Louis II plays host to Monaco versus Lille in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023 at 16:05 UTC.
Form
Monaco (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 6W 0D 4L at Stade Louis II — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lille have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Monaco against 1.80 for Lille. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Monaco lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 3–4 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 58% versus Lille 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 60% | Lille 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.51 xG and Lille 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.259 / defence 1.353 | Lille attack 0.950 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.224. Monaco carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 72 Monaco games / 72 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 36% | Draw 24% | Lille 39%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Lille 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 60% | Lille 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 36% | Draw 24% | Lille 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Monaco 1.51 / Lille 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.259 / def 1.353 | Lille attack 0.950 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Lille (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Lille xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Lille kick off?
Monaco vs Lille kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Lille?
Monaco 0 - 0 Lille.
Where is Monaco vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Lille part of?
Monaco vs Lille is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 36% chance of winning, Lille a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Monaco and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Lille?
Record (3 meetings): Monaco 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 1W.
What form are Monaco and Lille in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Monaco's attack rating (1.26) and Lille's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.95x) against Monaco's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
36%
2.75
24%
4.09
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Monaco xG
Total xG
3.08
1.57
Lille xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Monaco and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Monaco and 1.57 for Lille, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 39W 16D 17L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Lille's form line: 31W 21D 20L from 72 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Monaco against 1.58 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.92 PPG from 36 outings (21W 6D 9L).
On the road, Lille have gone 13W 9D 14L from 36 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.50 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 61%.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Lille in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 39W 16D 17L in their last 72 games (1.85 PPG), while Lille have gone 31W 21D 20L in their last 72 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Lille away?
Monaco's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.92 PPG; Lille away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Monaco
3
Draws
5
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 2, Lille have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Monaco 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 58%, Lille 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Monaco) and 47% (Lille). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Monaco's games and 58% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Monaco's matches and 47% of Lille's.
Do Monaco and Lille tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lille in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Monaco's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 35, as Monaco and Lille drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.51 xG and Lille 1.57 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Monaco fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Lille landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.26 / defence 1.35 against Lille attack 0.95 / defence 0.84, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 36% | Draw 24% | Lille 39%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 60%, Lille 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.85 PPG, Lille 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.