Metz 1-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Metz vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Metz welcome Monaco to Stade Saint-Symphorien. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Metz stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Metz's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stade Saint-Symphorien this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Monaco's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Monaco are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Metz, 1 for Monaco and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–4 with Monaco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 48% versus Monaco 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 48% | Monaco 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 0.85 xG and Monaco 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.745 / defence 1.320 | Monaco attack 0.759 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.083. Metz's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Metz games / 29 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 28% | Draw 32% | Monaco 40%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Monaco 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Metz 50% | Monaco 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 28% | Draw 32% | Monaco 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Metz 0.85 / Monaco 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.745 / def 1.320 | Monaco attack 0.759 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Monaco (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Monaco xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Monaco kick off?
Metz vs Monaco kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Monaco?
Metz 1 - 2 Monaco.
Where is Metz vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Monaco part of?
Metz vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 28% chance of winning, Monaco a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Metz and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Monaco?
Record (1 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 0 | Monaco 1W.
What form are Metz and Monaco in?
Metz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Metz's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
28%
3.57
32%
3.15
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Metz xG
Total xG
1.94
1.09
Monaco xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 15.6 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Metz and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Metz and 1.09 for Monaco, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Metz have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 4W 11D 14L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Monaco's form line: 12W 8D 9L from 29 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Metz.
Venue Form
On home soil, Metz have posted 0.64 PPG from 14 outings (1W 6D 7L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 4W 4D 6L from 14 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.48 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Current Season
Monaco
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Monaco in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 4W 11D 14L in their last 29 games (0.79 PPG), while Monaco have gone 12W 8D 9L in their last 29 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 0.64 PPG; Monaco away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Metz or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Monaco in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Monaco have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Monaco won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Metz's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Metz
0
Draws
6
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Monaco?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 0, Monaco have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Metz 1-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 57%, Monaco 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Metz) and 36% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 43% of games; Monaco in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Metz's recent matches and 43% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Metz's recent games and 36% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Monaco tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Monaco in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Metz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Metz 1-2 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.85 xG and Monaco 1.09 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monaco outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.74 / defence 1.32 against Monaco attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 28% | Draw 32% | Monaco 40%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 48%, Monaco 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.