Lyon 2-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 meet at Parc Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lyon have posted 7W 0D 3L at Parc Olympique Lyonnais — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc Olympique Lyonnais. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lyon are significantly better at Parc Olympique Lyonnais than their overall form suggests.
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Lyon 3W, Stade Brestois 29 3W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lyon — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Stade Brestois 29 — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 55% versus Stade Brestois 29 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 61% | Stade Brestois 29 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.98 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.111 / defence 0.837 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.994 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.243. Data: 51 Lyon games / 51 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 59% | Draw 21% | Stade Brestois 29 19%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Stade Brestois 29 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lyon 40% | Stade Brestois 29 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 59% | Draw 21% | Stade Brestois 29 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Lyon 1.98 / Stade Brestois 29 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.111 / def 0.837 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.994 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Lyon (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Stade Brestois 29 xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lyon 2 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What competition is Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 59% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (9 meetings): Lyon 3W | Draws 3 | Stade Brestois 29 3W.
What form are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lyon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.11) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.99x) against Lyon's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.67
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.02
1.03
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
37.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Lyon and 1.03 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lyon come into this having played 51 games, going 26W 9D 16L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stade Brestois 29 sit at 1.41 PPG from 51 outings (21W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Lyon against 1.41 for Stade Brestois 29. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lyon's home form reads 17W 2D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stade Brestois 29 have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (7W 3D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stade Brestois 29's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lyon are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.47 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 26W 9D 16L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 9D 21L in their last 51 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lyon's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.12 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Lyon or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lyon
3
Draws
3
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 4, Stade Brestois 29 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Lyon 2-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Stade Brestois 29?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 52%, Stade Brestois 29 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Lyon and 68% for Stade Brestois 29. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lyon's recent matches and 56% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Lyon's matches and 68% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Stade Brestois 29 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Stade Brestois 29 2-1 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.98 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.03 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.99 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 59% | Draw 21% | Stade Brestois 29 19%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 61%, Stade Brestois 29 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.71 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.