Lyon 1-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lyon at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nice make the trip to Groupama Stadium to face Lyon in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 16 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Lyon (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Groupama Stadium, Lyon have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nice's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nice have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Lyon against 1.40 for Nice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Lyon 1W, Nice 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lyon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 61% versus Nice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Nice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.18 xG and Nice 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.004 / defence 1.156 | Nice attack 0.760 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.107. Data: 59 Lyon games / 59 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 38% | Draw 35% | Nice 28%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Nice 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 50% | Nice 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 38% | Draw 35% | Nice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Lyon 1.18 / Nice 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.004 / def 1.156 | Nice attack 0.760 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Lyon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Nice xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Nice kick off?
Lyon vs Nice kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Nice?
Lyon 1 - 0 Nice.
Where is Lyon vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Nice part of?
Lyon vs Nice is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 38% chance of winning, Nice a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lyon and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Nice?
Record (5 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 2 | Nice 2W.
What form are Lyon and Nice in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Nice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.00) and Nice's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.76x) against Lyon's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
38%
2.64
35%
2.89
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.15
0.97
Nice xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lyon and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Lyon and 0.97 for Nice, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Lyon have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 24W 12D 23L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice's form line: 26W 19D 14L from 59 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Lyon against 1.64 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lyon have posted 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (12W 8D 9L).
On the road, Nice have gone 12W 9D 8L from 29 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lyon are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.19 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Nice in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Nice in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 24W 12D 23L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while Nice have gone 26W 19D 14L in their last 59 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.52 PPG; Nice away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Lyon or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Nice in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 4-1 on 1 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lyon
2
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 5, Nice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Lyon 2-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Nice?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 59%, Nice 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lyon) and 34% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Nice in 34%; Nice in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lyon's recent matches and 48% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lyon's recent games and 34% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Nice tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Nice in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Nice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Nice 1-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.18 xG and Nice 0.97 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against Nice attack 0.76 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 38% | Draw 35% | Nice 28%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Nice 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.42 PPG, Nice 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.