Lyon 1-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 43%, yet in-form Lille provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lyon vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Lyon welcome Lille to Groupama Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lyon — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's home record at Groupama Stadium: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Lyon are significantly better at Groupama Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Lyon's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lyon, 1 for Lille and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Lille winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lyon in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 70% and Lille 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 58% | Lille 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.66 xG and Lille 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.229 / defence 0.831 | Lille attack 1.169 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.433. Data: 50 Lyon games / 50 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 43% | Draw 26% | Lille 31%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Lille 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lille (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 80% | Lille 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 43% | Draw 26% | Lille 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Lyon 1.66 / Lille 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.229 / def 0.831 | Lille attack 1.169 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Lyon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Lille xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Lille kick off?
Lyon vs Lille kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Lille?
Lyon 1 - 0 Lille.
Where is Lyon vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Lille part of?
Lyon vs Lille is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 43% chance of winning, Lille a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lyon and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Lille?
Record (2 meetings): Lyon 0W | Draws 1 | Lille 1W.
What form are Lyon and Lille in?
Lyon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Lille (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lyon's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.90
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.06
1.39
Lille xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Lyon and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lyon and 1.39 for Lille, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 13D 15L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.54 PPG from 50 outings (21W 14D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.58 PPG, Lille on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lyon's home form reads 15W 6D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.44 points per game from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.46 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Lille in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Lille in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 22W 13D 15L in their last 50 games (1.58 PPG), while Lille have gone 21W 14D 15L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Lille away?
Lyon's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.04 PPG; Lille away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lyon have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lyon's record when hosting Lille specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lyon
3
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 5, Lille have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Lyon 1-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Lille?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lyon at 76%, Lille at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lyon and 60% for Lille. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Lyon's games and 68% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lyon's matches and 60% of Lille's.
Do Lyon and Lille tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lille in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Lille 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Lille 1-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.66 xG and Lille 1.39 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lille landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.23 / defence 0.83 against Lille attack 1.17 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 43% | Draw 26% | Lille 31%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 58%, Lille 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.58 PPG, Lille 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.