Lyon 2-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Groupama Stadium plays host to Lyon versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Groupama Stadium, Lyon have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Lyon, 1.90 for Auxerre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lyon register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Auxerre in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lyon — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 71% and Auxerre 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 56% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 2.66 xG and Auxerre 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.350 / defence 0.928 | Auxerre attack 0.838 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.575. Lyon carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Lyon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Lyon games / 4 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 67% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 14%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Auxerre 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.66 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 80% | Auxerre 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 67% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 67% | xG Lyon 2.66 / Auxerre 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.350 / def 0.928 | Auxerre attack 0.838 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.575 • Poisson stance: Lyon (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Auxerre xG
67%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Auxerre kick off?
Lyon vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Auxerre?
Lyon 2 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Lyon vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Auxerre part of?
Lyon vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 67% chance of winning, Auxerre a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Lyon and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lyon and Auxerre in?
Lyon (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lyon's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.66. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.84x) against Lyon's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 41/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.35
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.89
1.22
Auxerre xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
7%
14.35
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
1%
100.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Lyon and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Lyon and 1.22 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lyon come into this having played 41 games, going 19W 12D 10L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.85 PPG from 41 outings (21W 13D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Lyon against 1.85 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lyon's home form reads 13W 4D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.85 points per game from 20 outings (10W 7D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Lyon are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.54 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Auxerre in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 21W 13D 7L in their last 41 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Auxerre away?
Lyon's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.15 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Lyon or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Auxerre in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lyon
2
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lyon have won 3, Auxerre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lyon 3-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Auxerre?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Lyon, 65% for Auxerre — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Lyon) and 50% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Lyon's games and 65% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Lyon's matches and 50% of Auxerre's.
Do Lyon and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Auxerre 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Auxerre 2-1 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 2.66 xG and Auxerre 1.22 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.35 / defence 0.93 against Auxerre attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 41/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 67% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 14%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 56%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.68 PPG, Auxerre 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.