Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Stade Brestois 29 travel to Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 3W 0D 1L this season (4 games, 2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lille are significantly better at Stade Pierre-Mauroy than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 60% and Stade Brestois 29 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 60% | Stade Brestois 29 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.77 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.059 / defence 1.188 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.805 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.220. Stade Brestois 29 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Lille games / 10 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 48% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 22%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Stade Brestois 29 4.55. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Lille 50% | Stade Brestois 29 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 48% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Lille 1.77 / Stade Brestois 29 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.059 / def 1.188 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.805 / def 1.340 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Lille (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Stade Brestois 29 xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lille 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 48% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lille and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.06x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.36
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Lille xG
Total xG
2.94
1.17
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
4%
26.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lille and 1.17 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille's recent record stands at 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 0W 5D 5L across 10 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lille have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.10 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Stade Brestois 29 in 100%.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lille's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.25 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lille's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lille
5
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lille at 50%, Stade Brestois 29 at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Lille and 75% for Stade Brestois 29. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lille's games and 100% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Lille's matches and 75% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Lille and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.77 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.17 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.06 / defence 1.19 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.81 / defence 1.34, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 48% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 22%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 60%, Stade Brestois 29 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.