Lille 1-0 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Stade Brestois 29 travel to Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Lille are significantly better at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lille 1.60 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lille register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Lille have won 1, Stade Brestois 29 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Lille winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 63% and Stade Brestois 29 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 50% | Stade Brestois 29 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.32 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.045 / defence 0.848 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.964 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.200. Data: 46 Lille games / 46 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 43% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 26%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Stade Brestois 29 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Lille 70% | Stade Brestois 29 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 43% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Lille 1.32 / Stade Brestois 29 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.045 / def 0.848 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.964 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Lille (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Stade Brestois 29 xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lille 1 - 0 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 43% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lille and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (4 meetings): Lille 1W | Draws 2 | Stade Brestois 29 1W.
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.04x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
43%
2.35
31%
3.19
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Lille xG
Total xG
2.30
0.98
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Lille and 0.98 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille's recent record stands at 22W 13D 11L from 46 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 17L across 46 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lille have managed 15W 4D 3L from 22 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 6W 7D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.15 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 22W 13D 11L in their last 46 games (1.72 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 15W 14D 17L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lille's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.23 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lille's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lille
5
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 68%, Stade Brestois 29 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Lille) and 50% (Stade Brestois 29). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Lille's games and 59% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Lille's matches and 50% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Lille and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Stade Brestois 29 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Stade Brestois 29 1-0 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.32 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.98 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.04 / defence 0.85 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.96 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 43% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 26%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 50%, Stade Brestois 29 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.