Lille 0-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Lille welcome Metz to Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Metz — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Metz have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Lille carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lille have won 0, Metz 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lille trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Metz trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 71% and Metz 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 54% | Metz 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.26 xG and Metz 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.940 / defence 1.411 | Metz attack 0.693 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.170. Data: 24 Lille games / 24 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 39% | Draw 28% | Metz 33%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Metz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Lille 80% | Metz 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 39% | Draw 28% | Metz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Lille 1.26 / Metz 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.940 / def 1.411 | Metz attack 0.693 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Lille (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Metz xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Metz kick off?
Lille vs Metz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Metz?
Lille 0 - 0 Metz.
Where is Lille vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Metz part of?
Lille vs Metz is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 39% chance of winning, Metz a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lille and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Metz?
Record (1 meetings): Lille 0W | Draws 1 | Metz 0W.
What form are Lille and Metz in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Metz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lille's attack at 0.94x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.63
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Lille xG
Total xG
2.41
1.14
Metz xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lille and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lille and 1.14 for Metz, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Lille have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 9W 8D 7L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz's form line: 4W 8D 12L from 24 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Metz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lille have posted 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L).
On the road, Metz have gone 3W 4D 4L from 11 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.04 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Metz in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 9W 8D 7L in their last 24 games (1.46 PPG), while Metz have gone 4W 8D 12L in their last 24 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Metz away?
Lille's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.73 PPG; Metz away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Metz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lille won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Metz specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lille
3
Draws
0
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Metz have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Metz 0-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Metz?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 73%, Metz 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lille) and 54% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Metz in 36%; Metz in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Lille's games and 46% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lille's recent games and 54% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Metz tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Metz in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lille's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 25, as Lille and Metz drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.26 xG and Metz 1.14 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lille fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Metz landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.94 / defence 1.41 against Metz attack 0.69 / defence 1.13, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 39% | Draw 28% | Metz 33%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 54%, Metz 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Metz's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.