Lille 1-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lille face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Lyon at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 (matchday 10). Kick-off is Friday 1 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lille have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Lille's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lyon stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Lyon have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lille at 1.80 PPG versus Lyon's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Lille, 2 for Lyon and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2024, ended Lille 3–4 Lyon — a Lyon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Lyon in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 49% versus Lyon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 46% | Lyon 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.62 xG and Lyon 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.217 / defence 1.052 | Lyon attack 1.129 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.436. Data: built from Lille's last 43 games and Lyon's last 43.
Result probabilities: Lille 34% | Draw 27% | Lyon 38%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.90 | Draw 3.65 | Lyon 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lille's last 10 home games and Lyon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lille 80% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 10 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Friday 1 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 34% | Draw 27% | Lyon 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Lille 1.62 / Lyon 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.217 / def 1.052 | Lyon attack 1.129 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Lyon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Lyon xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Lille vs Lyon kick off?
Lille vs Lyon kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 1 November 2024 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Lyon?
Lille 1 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Lille vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Lyon part of?
Lille vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 10) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 34% chance of winning, Lyon a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Lille and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lille vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lille's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 43 games and Lyon's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
34%
2.90
27%
3.65
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Lille xG
Total xG
3.32
1.71
Lyon xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
6%
15.98
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Lille and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lille and 1.71 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille come into this having played 43 games, going 21W 13D 9L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.56 PPG from 43 outings (20W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.77 PPG, Lyon on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lille's home form reads 13W 5D 3L across their last 21 home games, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 21 away games (11W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.51 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Lyon
Blended
Lille (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Lille vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Lyon in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 21W 13D 9L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Lyon have gone 20W 7D 16L in their last 43 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Lyon away?
Lille's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.10 PPG; Lyon away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Lille or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Lyon in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Lille's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lille
3
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Lyon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 2, Lyon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Lyon 1-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 52%, Lyon 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lille) and 62% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Lyon in 33%; Lyon in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Lyon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lille's recent matches and 48% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lille and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Lille's matches and 62% of Lyon's.
Do Lille and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Lille's recent matches and 62% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille and Lyon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 10, as Lille and Lyon drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.62 xG and Lyon 1.71 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.22 / defence 1.05 against Lyon attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 34% | Draw 27% | Lyon 38%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 46%, Lyon 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.77 PPG, Lyon 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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