Lille 0-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Bordeaux at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lille at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Bordeaux have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Bordeaux have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Lille have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lille register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bordeaux in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lille, 0 for Bordeaux and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lille trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bordeaux trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 59% and Bordeaux 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 48% | Bordeaux 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 2.06 xG and Bordeaux 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.968 / defence 1.141 | Bordeaux attack 0.871 / defence 1.978. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.101. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.978 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Lille games / 29 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 59% | Draw 21% | Bordeaux 19%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Bordeaux 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Lille (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lille 60% | Bordeaux 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 59% | Draw 21% | Bordeaux 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Lille 2.06 / Bordeaux 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.968 / def 1.141 | Bordeaux attack 0.871 / def 1.978 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Lille (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Bordeaux xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Bordeaux kick off?
Lille vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Bordeaux?
Lille 0 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Lille vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Bordeaux part of?
Lille vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 59% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lille and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Lille 1W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 0W.
What form are Lille and Bordeaux in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Bordeaux (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.97) and Bordeaux's defence rating (1.98), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.70
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Lille xG
Total xG
3.15
1.09
Bordeaux xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
13%
7.83
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
2%
40.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Lille and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Lille and 1.09 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Bordeaux?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille's recent record stands at 12W 10D 7L from 29 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 4W 10D 15L across 29 games — 0.76 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bordeaux heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lille have managed 6W 6D 2L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 2W 5D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.31 scored and 2.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 12W 10D 7L in their last 29 games (1.59 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 4W 10D 15L in their last 29 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Bordeaux away?
Lille's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.71 PPG; Bordeaux away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lille
1
Draws
0
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Bordeaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Lille have won 1, Bordeaux have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Lille 0-0 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Bordeaux?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 57%, Bordeaux 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Lille and 86% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lille have failed to score in 29% of games; Bordeaux in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lille's games and 64% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lille's matches and 86% of Bordeaux's.
Do Lille and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lille's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille and Bordeaux finished level at 0-0 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 2.06 xG and Bordeaux 1.09 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lille fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Bordeaux landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Bordeaux attack 0.87 / defence 1.98, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 59% | Draw 21% | Bordeaux 19%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Bordeaux 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Bordeaux's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.