Lens 1-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lens (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lens face Clermont Foot.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Clermont Foot travel to Stade Bollaert-Delelis to take on Lens in Ligue 1 (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lens stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lens at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lens are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Clermont Foot have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Clermont Foot have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Lens have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Lens hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Clermont Foot and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Lens 3–0 Clermont Foot — a Lens win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Lens and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Lens trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Clermont Foot trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 51% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 51% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 1.51 xG and Clermont Foot 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 1.078 / defence 1.012 | Clermont Foot attack 0.735 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.306. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Lens's last 67 games and Clermont Foot's last 67.
Result probabilities: Lens 49% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 23%. Fair-value odds: Lens 2.06 | Draw 3.55 | Clermont Foot 4.30. Lens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lens as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lens 50% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 30 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 49% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Lens 1.51 / Clermont Foot 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 1.078 / def 1.012 | Clermont Foot attack 0.735 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Lens (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Lens xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Clermont Foot xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lens vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does Lens vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Lens vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Clermont Foot?
Lens 1 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Lens vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Clermont Foot part of?
Lens vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 30) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 49% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lens and Clermont Foot will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Lens vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lens's attack rating (1.08) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Lens's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lens's last 67 games and Clermont Foot's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.55
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Lens xG
Total xG
2.48
0.97
Clermont Foot xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
19.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lens vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lens and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lens and 0.97 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lens's recent record stands at 37W 16D 14L from 67 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 28L across 67 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lens by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lens have managed 24W 4D 5L from their last 33 home games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 10W 10D 13L across their last 33 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lens are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.99 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Lens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Lens (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lens
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Lens vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are Lens and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 37W 16D 14L in their last 67 games (1.90 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 21W 18D 28L in their last 67 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Clermont Foot away?
Lens's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 2.30 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Lens or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lens have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Mar 2023, when Lens won Clermont Foot 0-4 Lens.
Lens's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Lens
1
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Lens vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Clermont Foot?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lens have won 5, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lens and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Lens 1-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Clermont Foot?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 54%, Clermont Foot 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lens) and 52% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lens vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lens and Clermont Foot matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lens's games and 61% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lens and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Lens's recent games and 52% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lens and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Lens's recent matches and 76% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lens edge out Clermont Foot 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lens beat Clermont Foot 1-0 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.51 xG and Clermont Foot 0.97 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Clermont Foot attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 49% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 23%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 51%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Lens (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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