Lens 0-4 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lens at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lens face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lens and Auxerre meet at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 17:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lens have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lens's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Auxerre (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Lens, 0 for Auxerre and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Lens 2–2 Auxerre — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lens half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 42% versus Auxerre 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 38% | Auxerre 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lens surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Auxerre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 1.33 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 0.757 / defence 0.985 | Auxerre attack 0.895 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.424. Lens's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Data: built from Lens's last 64 games and Auxerre's last 30.
Result probabilities: Lens 38% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 35%. Fair-value odds: Lens 2.60 | Draw 3.78 | Auxerre 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lens are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lens 30% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 38% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Lens 1.33 / Auxerre 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 0.757 / def 0.985 | Auxerre attack 0.895 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Lens (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Lens xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Auxerre xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lens vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Lens vs Auxerre kick off?
Lens vs Auxerre kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Auxerre?
Lens 0 - 4 Auxerre.
Where is Lens vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Auxerre part of?
Lens vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 38% chance of winning, Auxerre a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lens and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lens vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lens's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.90x) against Lens's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Lens's last 64 games and Auxerre's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.78
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Lens xG
Total xG
2.58
1.25
Auxerre xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lens vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lens and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Lens and 1.25 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Lens have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 27W 15D 22L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Auxerre's form line: 30W 17D 17L from 64 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Lens against 1.67 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lens have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 32 home games (15W 6D 11L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 11W 8D 13L from their last 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lens are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.67 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Lens have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
Lens (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lens
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Lens vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Lens and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 27W 15D 22L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 30W 17D 17L in their last 64 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Auxerre away?
Lens's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 1.59 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Lens or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Auxerre in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Lens and Auxerre, the earliest from January 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Lens have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won Lens 0-4 Auxerre on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lens have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Lens
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lens vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Auxerre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lens have won 5, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lens and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Lens 5-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Auxerre?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 41%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Lens) and 53% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lens vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lens and Auxerre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lens's recent matches and 62% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lens and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Lens's recent games and 53% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lens and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Lens's recent matches and 81% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Lens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Lens 0-4 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.33 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Lens fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Auxerre outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 0.76 / defence 0.98 against Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 38% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 35%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 38%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lens 1.50 PPG, Auxerre 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Lens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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