Le Havre vs Toulouse – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Le Havre welcome Toulouse to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 0.80 PPG versus Toulouse's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Toulouse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 32% | Toulouse 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.15 xG and Toulouse 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.711 / defence 0.888 | Toulouse attack 1.137 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.341. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Le Havre games / 37 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 30% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 40%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Toulouse 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Toulouse 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 30% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Le Havre 1.15 / Toulouse 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.711 / def 0.888 | Toulouse attack 1.137 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Toulouse xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Toulouse kick off?
Le Havre vs Toulouse is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stade Océane.
Where is Le Havre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Toulouse part of?
Le Havre vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 30% chance of winning, Toulouse a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Le Havre and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Record (9 meetings): Le Havre 3W | Draws 2 | Toulouse 4W.
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.71) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
30%
3.30
30%
3.38
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.50
1.35
Toulouse xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.35 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 16D 15L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse's form line: 13W 10D 15L from 38 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 0.97 PPG, Toulouse on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (4W 9D 5L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 6W 4D 8L from 18 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.42 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 15L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.17 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Toulouse runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Le Havre
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
From 9 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 50%, Toulouse 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Le Havre) and 61% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Le Havre's games and 61% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Le Havre's recent games and 61% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Toulouse tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.