Estac Troyes 0-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Nantes travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 December 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Aube, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nantes have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nantes have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Estac Troyes 0.80 PPG, Nantes 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 1 for Nantes and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Estac Troyes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Nantes in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 64% and Nantes 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 49% | Nantes 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.57 xG and Nantes 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.932 / defence 1.088 | Nantes attack 0.795 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.367. Data: 53 Estac Troyes games / 53 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 45% | Draw 27% | Nantes 28%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Nantes 3.57. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 70% | Nantes 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 45% | Draw 27% | Nantes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Estac Troyes 1.57 / Nantes 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.932 / def 1.088 | Nantes attack 0.795 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Nantes xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Nantes kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Nantes?
Estac Troyes 0 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Nantes part of?
Estac Troyes vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 45% chance of winning, Nantes a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Estac Troyes and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Nantes?
Record (2 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 0 | Nantes 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Nantes in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Nantes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.93x the league average against Nantes's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.74
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.75
1.18
Nantes xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.18 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 12W 16D 25L from 53 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 19L across 53 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 0.98 PPG, Nantes on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 6W 12D 8L from 26 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 4W 8D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nantes's season.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Nantes in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Nantes in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 12W 16D 25L in their last 53 games (0.98 PPG), while Nantes have gone 17W 17D 19L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Nantes away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.15 PPG; Nantes away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Nantes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
1
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Nantes?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Nantes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when Nantes 2-2 Estac Troyes.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 62%, Nantes 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Estac Troyes) and 46% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Nantes in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Estac Troyes's games and 62% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 46% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Nantes tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Nantes in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estac Troyes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 16, as Estac Troyes and Nantes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.57 xG and Nantes 1.18 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Nantes landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Nantes attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 45% | Draw 27% | Nantes 28%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Nantes 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Nantes's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 0.98 PPG, Nantes 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.