Estac Troyes 1-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Angers travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 outings — a 0.71 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Ligue 1 appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Angers — All Games: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.71 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Angers away from home this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Angers are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.71 vs 0.71), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Estac Troyes register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Angers in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Angers trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 71% versus Angers 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estac Troyes 43% | Angers 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.96 xG and Angers 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.830 / defence 1.197 | Angers attack 0.804 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.337. Data: 7 Estac Troyes games / 7 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 24% | Draw 36% | Angers 40%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Angers 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Angers are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Estac Troyes 100% | Angers 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 24% | Draw 36% | Angers 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Estac Troyes 0.96 / Angers 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.830 / def 1.197 | Angers attack 0.804 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Angers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Angers xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Angers kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Angers?
Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Angers.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Angers part of?
Estac Troyes vs Angers is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 24% chance of winning, Angers a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Estac Troyes and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Angers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Angers in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Angers (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.86 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
24%
4.19
36%
2.77
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.25
1.29
Angers xG
4.19
24%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
7%
15.18
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.6 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.29 for Angers, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 1W 2D 4L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Angers's form line: 3W 3D 1L from 7 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Angers are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Angers have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.43 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Angers in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Angers in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Angers have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Angers away?
Angers's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.33 PPG; Angers away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Angers in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Angers have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Angers won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Angers specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
4
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Angers?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Angers have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Angers 2-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Angers see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Estac Troyes at 100%, Angers at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Estac Troyes and 0% for Angers.
On the defensive side: Angers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Estac Troyes's games and 67% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 0% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Angers tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Angers in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Angers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes and Angers finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.96 xG and Angers 1.29 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.83 / defence 1.20 against Angers attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 24% | Draw 36% | Angers 40%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 43%, Angers 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.