Estac Troyes 1-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Aube plays host to Estac Troyes versus Ajaccio in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Aube, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Ajaccio (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Ajaccio have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 60% versus Ajaccio 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estac Troyes 48% | Ajaccio 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.40 xG and Ajaccio 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.984 / defence 1.075 | Ajaccio attack 0.815 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.446. Data: 48 Estac Troyes games / 10 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 39% | Draw 27% | Ajaccio 33%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Ajaccio 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 50% | Ajaccio 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 39% | Draw 27% | Ajaccio 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Estac Troyes 1.40 / Ajaccio 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.984 / def 1.075 | Ajaccio attack 0.815 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Ajaccio xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio?
Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio part of?
Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 39% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Estac Troyes and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Ajaccio in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.98) and Ajaccio's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.81x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
39%
2.53
27%
3.68
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.67
1.27
Ajaccio xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.27 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 13D 23L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 24W 10D 14L from 48 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (6W 9D 8L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 11W 5D 7L from 23 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.96 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ajaccio in 27%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 12W 13D 23L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 24W 10D 14L in their last 48 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Ajaccio away?
Ajaccio's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.17 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
3
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Ajaccio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Estac Troyes 0-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 56%, Ajaccio 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Estac Troyes and 17% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 56%; Ajaccio in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 22% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 17% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Ajaccio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes and Ajaccio finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.40 xG and Ajaccio 1.27 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Ajaccio attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 39% | Draw 27% | Ajaccio 33%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 48%, Ajaccio 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ajaccio's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.