Clermont Foot 0-3 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Clermont Foot welcome Toulouse to Stade Gabriel-Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Toulouse's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 0 for Toulouse and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 53% versus Toulouse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Toulouse 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.14 xG and Toulouse 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.839 / defence 1.253 | Toulouse attack 0.892 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.283. Data: 64 Clermont Foot games / 64 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 43%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Clermont Foot dominate the H2H record, yet Toulouse are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 50% | Toulouse 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Clermont Foot 1.14 / Toulouse 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.839 / def 1.253 | Toulouse attack 0.892 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Toulouse xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Toulouse kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Toulouse?
Clermont Foot 0 - 3 Toulouse.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Toulouse part of?
Clermont Foot vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 29% chance of winning, Toulouse a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Clermont Foot and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Toulouse?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 2W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Toulouse in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Toulouse (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.84x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
29%
3.43
28%
3.59
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.57
1.43
Toulouse xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
7%
14.38
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.43 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 21W 16D 27L from 64 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 27L across 64 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.23 PPG, Toulouse on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 11W 7D 14L from 32 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 11W 6D 15L across 32 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.25 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 21W 16D 27L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 20W 17D 27L in their last 64 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Toulouse away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.25 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Toulouse runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Toulouse won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Toulouse?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Clermont Foot 0-3 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Toulouse?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 47%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Clermont Foot) and 59% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 38% of games; Toulouse in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 50% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 59% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Toulouse tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Clermont Foot 0-3 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.14 xG and Toulouse 1.43 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Clermont Foot fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Toulouse outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against Toulouse attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 43%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.23 PPG, Toulouse 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.