Clermont Foot 2-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade Gabriel Montpied to take on Clermont Foot. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Ajaccio — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Clermont Foot 0.90 PPG, Ajaccio 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 1, Ajaccio 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Clermont Foot trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ajaccio trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 50% versus Ajaccio 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Clermont Foot 47% | Ajaccio 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.35 xG and Ajaccio 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.681 / defence 1.226 | Ajaccio attack 0.657 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.255. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ajaccio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Clermont Foot games / 28 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 43% | Draw 30% | Ajaccio 27%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Ajaccio 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 50% | Ajaccio 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 43% | Draw 30% | Ajaccio 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Clermont Foot 1.35 / Ajaccio 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.681 / def 1.226 | Ajaccio attack 0.657 / def 1.444 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Ajaccio xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio part of?
Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 43% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Clermont Foot and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Ajaccio?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Ajaccio 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Ajaccio in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.68) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.36
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.36
1.01
Ajaccio xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
7%
14.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.01 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot come into this having played 66 games, going 18W 16D 32L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.45 PPG from 66 outings (28W 12D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.06 PPG, Ajaccio on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Clermont Foot's home form reads 8W 9D 16L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 1.33 points per game from 33 outings (12W 8D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.89 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 29%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Ajaccio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 18W 16D 32L in their last 66 games (1.06 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 28W 12D 26L in their last 66 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Ajaccio away?
Ajaccio's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.00 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajaccio have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Ajaccio?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Ajaccio have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Ajaccio.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 58%, Ajaccio 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Clermont Foot) and 30% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 39%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 30% of games; Ajaccio in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 30% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 30% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Ajaccio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Ajaccio 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.35 xG and Ajaccio 1.01 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.68 / defence 1.23 against Ajaccio attack 0.66 / defence 1.44, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 43% | Draw 30% | Ajaccio 27%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 47%, Ajaccio 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ajaccio's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.06 PPG, Ajaccio 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.