Bordeaux 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 make the trip to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to face Bordeaux in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Bordeaux (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bordeaux have posted 1W 3D 3L at Stade Matmut-Atlantique — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Bordeaux against 1.30 for Stade Brestois 29. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bordeaux register both teams scoring in 86% of relevant games, Stade Brestois 29 in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Stade Brestois 29 — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 79% and Stade Brestois 29 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 64% | Stade Brestois 29 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.61 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.007 / defence 1.430 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.879 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.202. Stade Brestois 29 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Bordeaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Bordeaux games / 14 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 38% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 34%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Stade Brestois 29 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 86% | Stade Brestois 29 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 38% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Bordeaux 1.61 / Stade Brestois 29 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.007 / def 1.430 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.879 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Stade Brestois 29 xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29?
Bordeaux 1 - 2 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 38% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bordeaux and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Stade Brestois 29?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.01x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.88x) against Bordeaux's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.56
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
3.12
1.51
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.51 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bordeaux's recent record stands at 2W 7D 5L from 14 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 5L across 14 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Bordeaux against 1.07 for Stade Brestois 29. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bordeaux have managed 1W 3D 3L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bordeaux are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.43 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; Stade Brestois 29 in 86%.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 2W 7D 5L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Bordeaux's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.86 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
0
Draws
1
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Stade Brestois 29?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Stade Brestois 29 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2022, when Stade Brestois 29 2-4 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bordeaux see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Bordeaux, 100% for Stade Brestois 29 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bordeaux) and 57% (Stade Brestois 29).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Bordeaux's games and 100% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bordeaux's recent games and 57% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stade Brestois 29 defy the odds to beat Bordeaux 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Bordeaux 1-2 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.61 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.51 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.01 / defence 1.43 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 38% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 34%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Stade Brestois 29 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 64%, Stade Brestois 29 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 82%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 0.93 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.