Bordeaux 2-3 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Bordeaux welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade Matmut-Atlantique. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Bordeaux have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bordeaux have posted 1W 3D 2L at Stade Matmut-Atlantique — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 4W 1D 1L from 6 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Paris Saint Germain's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Bordeaux's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 75% and Paris Saint Germain 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 58% | Paris Saint Germain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.20 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.961 / defence 1.354 | Paris Saint Germain attack 0.924 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.166. Data: 12 Bordeaux games / 12 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 27% | Draw 33% | Paris Saint Germain 39%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Paris Saint Germain 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 83% | Paris Saint Germain 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 27% | Draw 33% | Paris Saint Germain 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Bordeaux 1.20 / Paris Saint Germain 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.961 / def 1.354 | Paris Saint Germain attack 0.924 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Paris Saint Germain xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain?
Bordeaux 2 - 3 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 27% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bordeaux and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Paris Saint Germain?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Paris Saint Germain in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 0.96x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
27%
3.64
33%
3.02
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.66
1.46
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
15.67
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.46 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bordeaux come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 6D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.58 PPG from 12 outings (10W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.58 PPG clear of Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bordeaux's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Paris Saint Germain's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.17 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 2W 6D 4L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 10W 1D 1L in their last 12 (2.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.00 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
0
Draws
2
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Paris Saint Germain?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2022, when Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bordeaux at 83%, Paris Saint Germain at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bordeaux) and 50% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 33%; Paris Saint Germain in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Bordeaux's games and 50% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bordeaux's recent games and 50% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Bordeaux 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Bordeaux 2-3 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.20 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.46 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.96 / defence 1.35 against Paris Saint Germain attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 27% | Draw 33% | Paris Saint Germain 39%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 58%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bordeaux (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.