Bordeaux 2-2 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Matmut-Atlantique plays host to Bordeaux versus Lyon in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bordeaux (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux have gone 1W 3D 4L this season (8 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lyon have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's away record: 2W 1D 4L from 7 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Lyon are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Lyon — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 87% and Lyon 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bordeaux 73% | Lyon 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.61 xG and Lyon 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.008 / defence 1.404 | Lyon attack 0.800 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.270. Lyon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Bordeaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Bordeaux games / 15 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 41% | Draw 26% | Lyon 33%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Lyon 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lyon (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 88% | Lyon 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 41% | Draw 26% | Lyon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Bordeaux 1.61 / Lyon 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.008 / def 1.404 | Lyon attack 0.800 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Lyon xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Lyon kick off?
Bordeaux vs Lyon kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Lyon?
Bordeaux 2 - 2 Lyon.
Where is Bordeaux vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Lyon part of?
Bordeaux vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 41% chance of winning, Lyon a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bordeaux and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Lyon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Lyon in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Lyon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.01x the league average against Lyon's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (0.80x) against Bordeaux's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.83
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
3.04
1.43
Lyon xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.43 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 2W 7D 6L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon's form line: 6W 4D 5L from 15 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lyon are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bordeaux.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bordeaux are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.53 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 87% of their recent games; Lyon in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Lyon in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 2W 7D 6L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Lyon have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.86 PPG; Lyon away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Lyon?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 0, Lyon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when Lyon 6-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Bordeaux, 57% for Lyon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bordeaux) and 57% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Bordeaux's games and 57% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Bordeaux's matches and 57% of Lyon's.
Do Bordeaux and Lyon tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lyon in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux and Lyon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux and Lyon finished level at 2-2 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.61 xG and Lyon 1.43 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.01 / defence 1.40 against Lyon attack 0.80 / defence 1.37, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 41% | Draw 26% | Lyon 33%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 73%, Lyon 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.