Auxerre 3-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Auxerre welcome Angers to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Angers have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Auxerre's 20% rate and Angers's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Auxerre, 2 for Angers and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Angers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Angers in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Angers 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Angers 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.18 xG and Angers 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.729 / defence 0.799 | Angers attack 0.715 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.299. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Auxerre games / 65 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 34% | Angers 21%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Angers 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 20% | Angers 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 34% | Angers 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Auxerre 1.18 / Angers 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.729 / def 0.799 | Angers attack 0.715 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Angers xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Angers kick off?
Auxerre vs Angers kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Auxerre 3 - 1 Angers.
Where is Auxerre vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Angers part of?
Auxerre vs Angers is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 44% chance of winning, Angers a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Auxerre and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
Record (7 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 3 | Angers 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Angers in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Angers (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.73) and Angers's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
44%
2.25
34%
2.90
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Auxerre xG
Total xG
1.92
0.74
Angers xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.74 for Angers, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 65 games, going 16W 19D 30L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.08 PPG from 65 outings (19W 13D 33L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.03 PPG, Angers on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 11W 10D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.97 points per game from 32 outings (8W 7D 17L).
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.89 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Angers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Angers in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 16W 19D 30L in their last 65 games (1.03 PPG), while Angers have gone 19W 13D 33L in their last 65 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Angers away?
Auxerre's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.34 PPG; Angers away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Angers runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Angers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Auxerre
3
Draws
3
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
From 9 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Angers have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Auxerre 1-3 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 38%, Angers 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 25% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 38% of games; Angers in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Auxerre's recent matches and 34% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 25% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Angers tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Angers in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Angers 3-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.18 xG and Angers 0.74 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.73 / defence 0.80 against Angers attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 44% | Draw 34% | Angers 21%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Angers 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.03 PPG, Angers 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Angers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.