Angers 2-1 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Montpellier at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Angers host Montpellier at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Angers's home record at Stade Raymond-Kopa: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Montpellier stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Montpellier have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Montpellier's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Angers at 0.80 PPG versus Montpellier's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Angers, 1 for Montpellier and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Angers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Angers in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 57% versus Montpellier 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 50% | Montpellier 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.54 xG and Montpellier 2.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.874 / defence 1.161 | Montpellier attack 1.450 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.496. Montpellier have an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — the away xG of 2.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Angers games / 44 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 22% | Draw 20% | Montpellier 58%. Fair-value odds: Angers 4.55 | Draw 5.00 | Montpellier 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Montpellier (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 2.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. This conflicts with form data: Angers 50% | Montpellier 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 22% | Draw 20% | Montpellier 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 73% | xG Angers 1.54 / Montpellier 2.52 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.874 / def 1.161 | Montpellier attack 1.450 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Angers xG
Expected Goals
2.52
Montpellier xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Montpellier kick off?
Angers vs Montpellier kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Montpellier?
Angers 2 - 1 Montpellier.
Where is Angers vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Montpellier part of?
Angers vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 22% chance of winning, Montpellier a 58% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Angers and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Montpellier?
Record (2 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Angers and Montpellier in?
Angers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Montpellier (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Angers's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 2.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 1-3 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
22%
4.58
20%
4.98
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Angers xG
Total xG
4.06
2.52
Montpellier xG
4.58
22%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.71
Clean Sheet
8%
12.40
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
2%
56.85
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Angers and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Angers and 2.52 for Montpellier, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Montpellier?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Angers come into this having played 44 games, going 10W 13D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Montpellier sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (15W 7D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Montpellier, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 0.98 PPG, Montpellier on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Angers's home form reads 7W 3D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Montpellier have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (6W 2D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Angers are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.48 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Montpellier
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 10W 13D 21L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 15W 7D 22L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Montpellier away?
Angers's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.14 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Angers and Montpellier runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Angers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2023, when Montpellier won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Angers
0
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Montpellier?
From 6 meetings on record, Angers have won 4, Montpellier have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Angers 2-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Montpellier?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 48%, Montpellier 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Angers) and 52% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Angers have failed to score in 33% of games; Montpellier in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Angers's recent matches and 48% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Angers's recent games and 52% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Montpellier tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Montpellier 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Montpellier 2-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.54 xG and Montpellier 2.52 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Montpellier landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against Montpellier attack 1.45 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 22% | Draw 20% | Montpellier 58%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Angers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 50%, Montpellier 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Montpellier's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 0.98 PPG, Montpellier 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.