Angers 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Angers welcome Auxerre to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers at Stade Raymond-Kopa this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.10 PPG (Angers) versus 0.50 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Angers register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Angers, 0 for Auxerre and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 55% versus Auxerre 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 53% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.55 xG and Auxerre 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.832 / defence 1.385 | Auxerre attack 0.744 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.297. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Angers games / 22 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 40% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 31%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Auxerre 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Angers 90% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 40% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Angers 1.55 / Auxerre 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.832 / def 1.385 | Auxerre attack 0.744 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Angers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Auxerre xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Auxerre kick off?
Angers vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Auxerre?
Angers 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Angers vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Auxerre part of?
Angers vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 40% chance of winning, Auxerre a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Angers and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Angers and Auxerre in?
Angers (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.44
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Angers xG
Total xG
2.89
1.34
Auxerre xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Angers and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Angers and 1.34 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers come into this having played 60 games, going 12W 14D 34L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (22W 18D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Angers's home form reads 9W 3D 18L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.27 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 12W 14D 34L in their last 60 games (0.83 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 22W 18D 20L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.00 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Angers's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Angers
3
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Auxerre have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Auxerre 3-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 57%, Auxerre 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Angers) and 53% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers have failed to score in 27% of games; Auxerre in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Angers's games and 63% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Angers vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Angers's matches and 53% of Auxerre's.
Do Angers and Auxerre tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 23, as Angers and Auxerre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.55 xG and Auxerre 1.34 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.83 / defence 1.39 against Auxerre attack 0.74 / defence 1.31, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 40% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 31%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 53%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.