VPS 1-3 Turku PS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs Turku PS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lemonsoft Stadion plays host to VPS versus Turku PS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 14 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VPS have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's home record at Lemonsoft Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Turku PS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Turku PS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Turku PS have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in VPS's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — VPS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Turku PS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: VPS 0W, Turku PS 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Turku PS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
VPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Turku PS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 57% versus Turku PS 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 43% | Turku PS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.67 xG and Turku PS 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.161 / defence 0.816 | Turku PS attack 0.685 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.097. Data: 41 VPS games / 19 Turku PS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 63% | Draw 24% | Turku PS 13%. Fair-value odds: VPS 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Turku PS 7.69. The model has a clear lean to VPS (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: VPS 60% | Turku PS 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Turku PS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 63% | Draw 24% | Turku PS 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 37% | xG VPS 1.67 / Turku PS 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.161 / def 0.816 | Turku PS attack 0.685 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: VPS (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
VPS xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Turku PS xG
37%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Turku PS kick off?
VPS vs Turku PS kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Turku PS?
VPS 1 - 3 Turku PS.
Where is VPS vs Turku PS being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Turku PS part of?
VPS vs Turku PS is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Turku PS?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 63% chance of winning, Turku PS a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Turku PS?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both VPS and Turku PS will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Turku PS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Turku PS?
Record (1 meetings): VPS 0W | Draws 0 | Turku PS 1W.
What form are VPS and Turku PS in?
VPS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Turku PS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VPS's attack rating (1.16) and Turku PS's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Turku PS's attack (0.69x) against VPS's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 41/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
63%
1.60
24%
4.11
13%
7.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
VPS xG
Total xG
2.28
0.61
Turku PS xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
7.67
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
2%
40.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Turku PS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are VPS and Turku PS expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for VPS and 0.61 for Turku PS, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Turku PS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VPS's recent record stands at 8W 6D 7L from 21 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Turku PS, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 7L across 21 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Turku PS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for VPS against 1.52 for Turku PS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VPS have managed 5W 3D 2L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Turku PS's away record stands at 1W 4D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Turku PS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VPS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Turku PS are on 1.43 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Turku PS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Turku PS in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Turku PS have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Turku PS away?
VPS's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.80 PPG; Turku PS away: 0.70 PPG.
Have VPS or Turku PS been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Turku PS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
VPS
0
Draws
2
Turku PS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Turku PS?
From 2 meetings on record, VPS have won 0, Turku PS have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Turku PS last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when VPS 1-3 Turku PS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Turku PS?
Turku PS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Turku PS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 60%, Turku PS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VPS) and 40% (Turku PS).
On the defensive side: Turku PS in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Turku PS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Turku PS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of VPS's games and 60% of Turku PS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs Turku PS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VPS's recent games and 40% of Turku PS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Turku PS tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Turku PS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Turku PS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Turku PS beat VPS 1-3 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.67 xG and Turku PS 0.61 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Turku PS outscored their 0.61 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Turku PS attack 0.69 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 63% | Draw 24% | Turku PS 13%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Turku PS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 43%, Turku PS 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Turku PS's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.43 PPG, Turku PS 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Turku PS win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Turku PS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.