VPS 1-3 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VPS host KuPS at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
VPS's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Lemonsoft Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lemonsoft Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KuPS stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, VPS have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 2.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for VPS, 2 for KuPS and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 1–2 with KuPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
KuPS trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 44% versus KuPS 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 56% | KuPS 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.34 xG and KuPS 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.181 / defence 0.946 | KuPS attack 0.887 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.202. KuPS's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 VPS games / 29 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 41% | Draw 35% | KuPS 24%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | KuPS 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VPS 50% | KuPS 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 41% | Draw 35% | KuPS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG VPS 1.34 / KuPS 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.181 / def 0.946 | KuPS attack 0.887 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: VPS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.01
KuPS xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs KuPS kick off?
VPS vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 22 May 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs KuPS?
VPS 1 - 3 KuPS.
Where is VPS vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs KuPS part of?
VPS vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 41% chance of winning, KuPS a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both VPS and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
Record (4 meetings): VPS 2W | Draws 0 | KuPS 2W.
What form are VPS and KuPS in?
VPS (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. KuPS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VPS's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
41%
2.46
35%
2.84
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
VPS xG
Total xG
2.35
1.01
KuPS xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
6%
15.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are VPS and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for VPS and 1.01 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS's recent record stands at 28W 8D 18L from 54 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 10L across 54 games — 2.04 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.70 PPG, KuPS on 2.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VPS have managed 11W 5D 10L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 15W 6D 5L across 26 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.56 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and KuPS in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 28W 8D 18L in their last 54 games (1.70 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.46 PPG; KuPS away: 1.96 PPG.
Have VPS or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, KuPS in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VPS's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VPS
2
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 3, KuPS have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VPS and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when KuPS 3-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 46%, KuPS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VPS) and 42% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 46%; VPS have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of VPS's recent matches and 46% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of VPS's recent games and 42% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and KuPS tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, KuPS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat VPS 1-3 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.34 xG and KuPS 1.01 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. KuPS outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.18 / defence 0.95 against KuPS attack 0.89 / defence 0.73, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 41% | Draw 35% | KuPS 24%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a KuPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 56%, KuPS 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.70 PPG, KuPS 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KuPS win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.