Mariehamn 2-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours SJK (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mariehamn face SJK.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mariehamn and SJK meet at Wiklof Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's home record at Wiklof Holding Arena: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Mariehamn are significantly better at Wiklof Holding Arena than their overall form suggests.
SJK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SJK arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, SJK have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Mariehamn's 2, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with SJK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SJK have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Mariehamn half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
SJK half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mariehamn 52% and SJK 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | SJK 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.00 xG and SJK 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.645 / defence 1.382 | SJK attack 1.005 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.130. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Mariehamn games / 41 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 24% | Draw 26% | SJK 50%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | SJK 2.00. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Mariehamn 40% | SJK 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Wiklof Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 24% | Draw 26% | SJK 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Mariehamn 1.00 / SJK 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.645 / def 1.382 | SJK attack 1.005 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: SJK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.57
SJK xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs SJK kick off?
Mariehamn vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Mariehamn 2 - 0 SJK.
Where is Mariehamn vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs SJK part of?
Mariehamn vs SJK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 24% chance of winning, SJK a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mariehamn and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and SJK?
Record (9 meetings): Mariehamn 2W | Draws 0 | SJK 7W.
What form are Mariehamn and SJK in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. SJK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.65x the league average against SJK's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SJK's attack (1.00x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
24%
4.17
26%
3.88
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.57
1.57
SJK xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
5%
20.02
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.57 for SJK, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn come into this having played 46 games, going 8W 13D 25L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.39 PPG from 46 outings (17W 13D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mariehamn's home form reads 5W 7D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.85 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 70%.
Last 46 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and SJK in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 8W 13D 25L in their last 46 games (0.80 PPG), while SJK have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 0.96 PPG; SJK away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
0
Draws
7
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 3, SJK have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Mariehamn 2-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 52%, SJK 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Mariehamn and 78% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Mariehamn's games and 74% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Mariehamn's matches and 78% of SJK's.
Do Mariehamn and SJK tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SJK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat SJK 2-0 at Wiklof Holding Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.00 xG and SJK 1.57 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SJK landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.65 / defence 1.38 against SJK attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 24% | Draw 26% | SJK 50%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Mariehamn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, SJK 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
SJK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Mariehamn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.