Mariehamn 1-2 HJK Helsinki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours HJK Helsinki (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mariehamn face HJK Helsinki.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
HJK Helsinki make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mariehamn have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mariehamn's home record at Wiklöf Holding Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
HJK Helsinki (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for HJK Helsinki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, HJK Helsinki have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. HJK Helsinki are 1.10 PPG clear of Mariehamn in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mariehamn lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with HJK Helsinki winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
HJK Helsinki goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 59% versus HJK Helsinki 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 52% | HJK Helsinki 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.23 xG and HJK Helsinki 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.903 / defence 0.922 | HJK Helsinki attack 1.180 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.278. Data: 34 Mariehamn games / 36 HJK Helsinki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 31% | Draw 30% | HJK Helsinki 39%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | HJK Helsinki 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates HJK Helsinki as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on HJK Helsinki if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 30% | HJK Helsinki 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 31% | Draw 30% | HJK Helsinki 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Mariehamn 1.23 / HJK Helsinki 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.903 / def 0.922 | HJK Helsinki attack 1.180 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: HJK Helsinki (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.39
HJK Helsinki xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki kick off?
Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Mariehamn 1 - 2 HJK Helsinki.
Where is Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki part of?
Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 31% chance of winning, HJK Helsinki a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making HJK Helsinki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki?
Record (5 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 1 | HJK Helsinki 3W.
What form are Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. HJK Helsinki (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.90) and HJK Helsinki's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HJK Helsinki's attack (1.18x) against Mariehamn's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 34/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HJK Helsinki Win
31%
3.21
30%
3.34
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.62
1.39
HJK Helsinki xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.39 for HJK Helsinki, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 15W 13D 26L from 54 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five.
HJK Helsinki, meanwhile, have gone 33W 12D 9L across 54 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for HJK Helsinki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours HJK Helsinki by 0.99 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 8W 7D 11L from 26 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
HJK Helsinki's away record stands at 14W 8D 4L across 26 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, HJK Helsinki come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; HJK Helsinki are on 1.69 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: HJK Helsinki in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Current Season
HJK Helsinki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while HJK Helsinki have gone 33W 12D 9L in their last 54 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or HJK Helsinki away?
HJK Helsinki's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.19 PPG; HJK Helsinki away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or HJK Helsinki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, HJK Helsinki in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: HJK Helsinki have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HJK Helsinki won 8-2 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against HJK Helsinki — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
1
Draws
8
HJK Helsinki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, HJK Helsinki have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when Mariehamn 0-4 HJK Helsinki.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki?
HJK Helsinki have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
HJK Helsinki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 58%, HJK Helsinki 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mariehamn) and 50% (HJK Helsinki).
On the defensive side: HJK Helsinki in 35%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / HJK Helsinki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play HJK Helsinki?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Mariehamn's games and 65% of HJK Helsinki's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mariehamn's recent games and 50% of HJK Helsinki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, HJK Helsinki in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as HJK Helsinki edge out Mariehamn 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HJK Helsinki beat Mariehamn 1-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.23 xG and HJK Helsinki 1.39 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against HJK Helsinki attack 1.18 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 31% | Draw 30% | HJK Helsinki 39%, with HJK Helsinki to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 52%, HJK Helsinki 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
HJK Helsinki's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, HJK Helsinki arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.