Mariehamn 0-3 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mariehamn at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs Gnistan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Gnistan travel to Wiklof Holding Arena to take on Mariehamn. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 June 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's home record at Wiklof Holding Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Gnistan — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gnistan have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Mariehamn carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Gnistan, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Mariehamn.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 2–5 with Gnistan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Gnistan have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Gnistan in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mariehamn 57% and Gnistan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 59% | Gnistan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.22 xG and Gnistan 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.859 / defence 1.123 | Gnistan attack 0.867 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 0.988. Data: 31 Mariehamn games / 31 Gnistan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 40% | Draw 33% | Gnistan 27%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Gnistan 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Gnistan lead the H2H ledger, but Mariehamn carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Mariehamn 50% | Gnistan 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wiklof Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 40% | Draw 33% | Gnistan 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Mariehamn 1.22 / Gnistan 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.859 / def 1.123 | Gnistan attack 0.867 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.440 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Gnistan xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Gnistan kick off?
Mariehamn vs Gnistan kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 June 2026 at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Mariehamn 0 - 3 Gnistan.
Where is Mariehamn vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Gnistan part of?
Mariehamn vs Gnistan is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 40% chance of winning, Gnistan a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mariehamn and Gnistan will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Gnistan?
Record (7 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 2 | Gnistan 4W.
What form are Mariehamn and Gnistan in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Gnistan (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.86x the league average against Gnistan's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gnistan's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
40%
2.51
33%
3.02
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.18
0.96
Gnistan xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Mariehamn and 0.96 for Gnistan, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 15W 13D 26L from 54 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gnistan, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 22L across 54 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.07 PPG, Gnistan on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 9W 7D 11L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gnistan's away record stands at 7W 9D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 1.48 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gnistan in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Gnistan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Gnistan in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 17W 15D 22L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Gnistan away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.26 PPG; Gnistan away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Gnistan have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Mariehamn won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Gnistan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
2
Draws
6
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Gnistan?
From 9 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, Gnistan have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Gnistan last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Gnistan?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 52%, Gnistan 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Mariehamn and 67% for Gnistan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Gnistan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Mariehamn's games and 70% of Gnistan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs Gnistan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Mariehamn's matches and 67% of Gnistan's.
Do Mariehamn and Gnistan tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gnistan in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gnistan run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat Mariehamn 0-3 at Wiklof Holding Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.22 xG and Gnistan 0.96 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gnistan outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Gnistan attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 40% | Draw 33% | Gnistan 27%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gnistan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 59%, Gnistan 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gnistan's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.07 PPG, Gnistan 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gnistan win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.