Mariehamn 1-1 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mariehamn at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs Gnistan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Gnistan travel to Wiklöf Holding Arena to take on Mariehamn. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mariehamn's home record at Wiklöf Holding Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gnistan — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Gnistan have played only a handful of Veikkausliiga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mariehamn carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Mariehamn's 30% rate and Gnistan's 0% (using overall form) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mariehamn, 0 for Gnistan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 3–0 with Mariehamn winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 2.12 xG and Gnistan 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.117 / defence 1.126 | Gnistan attack 1.181 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.219. Gnistan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Mariehamn games / 8 Gnistan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 47% | Draw 25% | Gnistan 27%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Gnistan 3.70. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.0 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 72% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows. Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 73% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 47% | Draw 25% | Gnistan 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG Mariehamn 2.12 / Gnistan 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.117 / def 1.126 | Gnistan attack 1.181 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Gnistan xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Gnistan kick off?
Mariehamn vs Gnistan kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 Gnistan.
Where is Mariehamn vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Gnistan part of?
Mariehamn vs Gnistan is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 47% chance of winning, Gnistan a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Mariehamn and Gnistan will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Gnistan?
Record (2 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 1 | Gnistan 0W.
What form are Mariehamn and Gnistan in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Gnistan (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 1.12x the league average against Gnistan's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gnistan's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
47%
2.12
25%
3.94
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.75
1.62
Gnistan xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
12%
8.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
3%
30.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.62 for Gnistan, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mariehamn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gnistan, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Gnistan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mariehamn by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gnistan heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Gnistan in 0%.
Defensively: Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Gnistan in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Early Season
Gnistan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Gnistan in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Mariehamn or Gnistan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Gnistan in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Gnistan have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Mariehamn won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Gnistan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
2
Draws
6
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Gnistan?
From 9 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, Gnistan have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Gnistan last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Gnistan?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Gnistan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 0% of Gnistan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Gnistan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mariehamn's recent games and 50% of Gnistan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Mariehamn and Gnistan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and Gnistan finished level at 1-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 2.12 xG and Gnistan 1.62 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Gnistan attack 1.18 / defence 1.21, drawn from 29/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 47% | Draw 25% | Gnistan 27%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, Gnistan 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Mariehamn arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mariehamn shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gnistan scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.