Lahti 0-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lahti vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lahti welcome Mariehamn to Lahden Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 August 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Lahti have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lahti, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lahti's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Lahden Stadion this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Lahti) versus 1.10 (Mariehamn). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Lahti trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mariehamn trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lahti 54% versus Mariehamn 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lahti 50% | Mariehamn 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lahti 1.03 xG and Mariehamn 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lahti attack 0.687 / defence 1.029 | Mariehamn attack 0.758 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.451. Lahti's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Lahti games / 41 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lahti 32% | Draw 30% | Mariehamn 38%. Fair-value odds: Lahti 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Mariehamn 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lahti 50% | Mariehamn 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lahti vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lahden Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lahti 32% | Draw 30% | Mariehamn 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Lahti 1.03 / Mariehamn 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lahti attack 0.687 / def 1.029 | Mariehamn attack 0.758 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Lahti xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Mariehamn xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lahti vs Mariehamn kick off?
Lahti vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Lahden Stadion.
What was the final score in Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Lahti 0 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is Lahti vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Lahden Stadion.
What competition is Lahti vs Mariehamn part of?
Lahti vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Lahti a 32% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lahti and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Lahti vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lahti and Mariehamn in?
Lahti (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lahti's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Lahti's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
32%
3.08
30%
3.35
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Lahti xG
Total xG
2.16
1.13
Mariehamn xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lahti and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Lahti and 1.13 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lahti's recent record stands at 14W 15D 17L from 46 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lahti is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 24L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lahti on 1.24 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lahti have managed 7W 7D 9L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 5W 4D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lahti are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.02 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lahti
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lahti and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Lahti have gone 14W 15D 17L in their last 46 games (1.24 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 13W 9D 24L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lahti at home or Mariehamn away?
Lahti's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lahti at home: 1.22 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lahti and Mariehamn runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Mariehamn won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lahti's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lahti
3
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Lahti have won 4, Mariehamn have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lahti and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Lahti and Mariehamn?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lahti 48%, Mariehamn 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lahti) and 44% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Lahti have failed to score in 44% of games; Mariehamn in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lahti home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lahti play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lahti's recent matches and 44% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lahti vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lahti's recent games and 44% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lahti and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Lahti have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lahti.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Lahti 0-2 at Lahden Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lahti 1.03 xG and Mariehamn 1.13 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lahti fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Mariehamn outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lahti attack 0.69 / defence 1.03 against Mariehamn attack 0.76 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lahti 32% | Draw 30% | Mariehamn 38%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lahti 50%, Mariehamn 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lahti's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mariehamn's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lahti 1.24 PPG, Mariehamn 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Lahti (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.