KuPS 1-1 Turku PS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Turku PS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Turku PS at Vare Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, KuPS have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vare Areena, KuPS have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Turku PS — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Turku PS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Turku PS's away record: 1W 3D 5L from 9 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, KuPS have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, KuPS have won 1, Turku PS 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2026, ended 2–1 with KuPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
KuPS in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Turku PS in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 60% versus Turku PS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 45% | Turku PS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.97 xG and Turku PS 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.266 / defence 0.987 | Turku PS attack 0.648 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.118. KuPS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 KuPS games / 18 Turku PS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 67% | Draw 21% | Turku PS 13%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Turku PS 7.69. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: KuPS 70% | Turku PS 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Turku PS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Vare Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 67% | Draw 21% | Turku PS 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 44% | xG KuPS 1.97 / Turku PS 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.266 / def 0.987 | Turku PS attack 0.648 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: KuPS (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Turku PS xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Turku PS kick off?
KuPS vs Turku PS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Vare Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Turku PS?
KuPS 1 - 1 Turku PS.
Where is KuPS vs Turku PS being played?
The match is being played at Vare Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Turku PS part of?
KuPS vs Turku PS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Turku PS?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 67% chance of winning, Turku PS a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Turku PS?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both KuPS and Turku PS will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Turku PS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Turku PS?
Record (1 meetings): KuPS 1W | Draws 0 | Turku PS 0W.
What form are KuPS and Turku PS in?
KuPS (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Turku PS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KuPS's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Turku PS's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Turku PS's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
67%
1.50
21%
4.83
13%
7.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.68
0.71
Turku PS xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
7.99
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
2%
57.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Turku PS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are KuPS and Turku PS expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for KuPS and 0.71 for Turku PS, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Turku PS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
KuPS's recent record stands at 13W 6D 1L from 20 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Turku PS, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 7L across 20 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Turku PS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Turku PS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 6W 3D 0L from 9 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Turku PS's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Turku PS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Turku PS are on 1.45 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KuPS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Turku PS in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Turku PS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Turku PS in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 13W 6D 1L in their last 20 games (2.25 PPG), while Turku PS have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Turku PS away?
KuPS's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.33 PPG; Turku PS away: 0.67 PPG.
Have KuPS or Turku PS been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Turku PS in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
KuPS
1
Draws
0
Turku PS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Turku PS?
From 2 meetings on record, KuPS have won 1, Turku PS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Turku PS last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when KuPS 1-1 Turku PS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Turku PS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Turku PS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 67%, Turku PS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (KuPS) and 44% (Turku PS).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Turku PS in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Turku PS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Turku PS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of KuPS's games and 56% of Turku PS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KuPS vs Turku PS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of KuPS's recent games and 44% of Turku PS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Turku PS tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Turku PS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS and Turku PS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 19, as KuPS and Turku PS drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.97 xG and Turku PS 0.71 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. KuPS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.27 / defence 0.99 against Turku PS attack 0.65 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 67% | Draw 21% | Turku PS 13%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 45%, Turku PS 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Turku PS's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.