KuPS 2-0 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours KuPS (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KuPS face Kooteepee.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Kooteepee at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KuPS — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KuPS have posted 6W 0D 4L at Väre Areena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
KuPS carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for KuPS, 0 for Kooteepee and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
KuPS in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (KuPS 19% | Kooteepee 31%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (KuPS 19% | Kooteepee 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.27 xG and Kooteepee 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.911 / defence 0.798 | Kooteepee attack 0.695 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.062. KuPS's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 KuPS games / 16 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 51% | Draw 33% | Kooteepee 15%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.96 | Draw 3.03 | Kooteepee 6.67. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Kooteepee's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 20% | Kooteepee 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 51% | Draw 33% | Kooteepee 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG KuPS 1.27 / Kooteepee 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.911 / def 0.798 | Kooteepee attack 0.695 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: KuPS (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Kooteepee xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Kooteepee kick off?
KuPS vs Kooteepee kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Kooteepee?
KuPS 2 - 0 Kooteepee.
Where is KuPS vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Kooteepee part of?
KuPS vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 51% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 15% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both KuPS and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Kooteepee?
Record (3 meetings): KuPS 2W | Draws 1 | Kooteepee 0W.
What form are KuPS and Kooteepee in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Kooteepee (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates KuPS's attack at 0.91x the league average against Kooteepee's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
51%
1.95
33%
3.01
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
KuPS xG
Total xG
1.86
0.59
Kooteepee xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
55%
1.80
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
29%
3.51
4%
23.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are KuPS and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for KuPS and 0.59 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
KuPS come into this having played 16 games, going 10W 2D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
KuPS's home form reads 5W 0D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kooteepee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.81 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KuPS have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Kooteepee in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 10W 2D 4L in their last 16 games (2.00 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Kooteepee away?
KuPS's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 1.88 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.62 PPG.
Have KuPS or Kooteepee been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Kooteepee in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when KuPS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KuPS's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
0
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Kooteepee?
From 6 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Kooteepee have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Kooteepee 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Kooteepee?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — KuPS 12% BTTS, Kooteepee 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for KuPS and 38% for Kooteepee.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kooteepee in 38%; KuPS have failed to score in 38% of games; Kooteepee in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Kooteepee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of KuPS's recent matches and 38% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of KuPS's recent games and 38% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Kooteepee tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Kooteepee 2-0 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.27 xG and Kooteepee 0.59 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.91 / defence 0.80 against Kooteepee attack 0.69 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 51% | Draw 33% | Kooteepee 15%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 19%, Kooteepee 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kooteepee's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.