Kooteepee 1-3 Honka – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kooteepee at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kooteepee vs Honka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Honka travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 May 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.30 xG and Honka 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Honka attack 0.979 / defence 1.523. League average goals — home 0.874 / away 1.010. Honka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.523 — this is suppressing Kooteepee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Kooteepee games / 2 Honka games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 36% | Draw 35% | Honka 29%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Honka 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kooteepee at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kooteepee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 36% | Draw 35% | Honka 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Kooteepee 1.30 / Honka 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Honka attack 0.979 / def 1.523 | league avg home 0.874 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Kooteepee (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Honka xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Honka kick off?
Kooteepee vs Honka kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 7 May 2021 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Honka?
Kooteepee 1 - 3 Honka.
Where is Kooteepee vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Honka part of?
Kooteepee vs Honka is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 36% chance of winning, Honka a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Kooteepee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kooteepee and Honka will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Honka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kooteepee and Honka in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kooteepee's attack rating (0.98) and Honka's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Honka's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kooteepee Win
36%
2.74
35%
2.85
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.44
1.14
Honka xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.14 for Honka, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
Honka
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kooteepee and Honka runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kooteepee's record when hosting Honka specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Kooteepee
0
Draws
3
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Honka?
From 5 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 2, Honka have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Honka last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Kooteepee 1-2 Honka.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Honka?
Honka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Honka cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Honka beat Kooteepee 1-3 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.30 xG and Honka 1.14 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Honka outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Honka attack 0.98 / defence 1.52, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 36% | Draw 35% | Honka 29%, with Kooteepee to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Honka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.