Ilves 3-3 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and SJK meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 9. This fixture gets under way on Monday 3 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Tammelan Stadion, Ilves have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SJK have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, SJK have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ilves register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, SJK in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ilves lead 1W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with SJK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
SJK — key trading statistics (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ilves 54% and SJK 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ilves 63% | SJK 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.86 xG and SJK 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.065 / defence 0.885 | SJK attack 1.168 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.654. Data: 44 Ilves games / 44 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 41% | Draw 24% | SJK 35%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | SJK 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 90% | SJK 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 41% | Draw 24% | SJK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Ilves 1.86 / SJK 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.065 / def 0.885 | SJK attack 1.168 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.654 • Poisson stance: Ilves (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.71
SJK xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs SJK kick off?
Ilves vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs SJK?
Ilves 3 - 3 SJK.
Where is Ilves vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs SJK part of?
Ilves vs SJK is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 41% chance of winning, SJK a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Ilves and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
Record (7 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 3 | SJK 3W.
What form are Ilves and SJK in?
Ilves (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ilves's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — SJK's attack (1.17x) against Ilves's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
41%
2.42
24%
4.24
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.57
1.71
SJK xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
5%
18.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Ilves and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Ilves and 1.71 for SJK, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 34W 11D 12L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
SJK's form line: 27W 14D 16L from 57 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Ilves against 1.67 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 2.24 PPG from 29 outings (20W 5D 4L).
On the road, SJK have gone 14W 6D 9L from 29 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.95 scored and 1.63 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 68%.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Current Season
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and SJK in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 34W 11D 12L in their last 57 games (1.98 PPG), while SJK have gone 27W 14D 16L in their last 57 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or SJK away?
Ilves's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.24 PPG; SJK away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Ilves or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, SJK in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ilves
6
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 1, SJK have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 62%, SJK 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Ilves and 83% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ilves's games and 66% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Ilves's matches and 83% of SJK's.
Do Ilves and SJK tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SJK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves and SJK share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves and SJK finished level at 3-3 at Tammelan Stadion, Championship Round - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.86 xG and SJK 1.71 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SJK outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against SJK attack 1.17 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 41% | Draw 24% | SJK 35%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 63%, SJK 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
SJK's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.98 PPG, SJK 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.